The Anger Bias

Source: The Anger Bias

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Share: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

The world around us redunds with opportunities, explodes with opportunities, which nearly all folk ignore because it would require them to violate a habit of thought; in every battle a thousand Hufflepuff bones waiting to be sharpened into spears. If you had thought to try a massed Finite Incantatem on general principles, you would have dispelled Mr. Potter’s suit of chainmail and everything else he was wearing except his underwear, which leads me to suspect that Mr. Potter did not quite realize his own vulnerability. Or you could have had your soldiers swarm Mr. Potter and Mr. Longbottom and physically wrest the wands from their hands. Mr. Malfoy’s own response was not what I would term well-reasoned, but at least he did not wholly ignore his thousand alternatives.” A sardonic smile. “But you, Miss Granger, had the misfortune to remember how to cast the Stunning Hex, and so you did not search your excellent memory for a dozen easier spells that might have proved efficacious. And you pinned all your army’s hopes on your own person, so they lost spirit when you fell. Afterward they continued to cast their futile Sleep Hexes, governed by the habits of fighting that had been trained into them, unable to break the pattern as Mr. Malfoy did. I cannot quite comprehend what goes through people’s minds when they repeat the same failed strategy over and over, but apparently it is an astonishingly rare realization that you can try something else. And so the Sunshine Regiment was wiped out by two soldiers.” The Defense Professor grinned mirthlessly. “One perceives certain similarities to how fifty Death Eaters dominated all of magical Britain, and how our much-loved Ministry continues in its rul

F-test

We’ve already seen what F-score is. Now let’s see what
F-test. Side note: I came across it when I was writing
Elbow Method and my thoughts were, cool another F-word for my readers, so

Here you go:

  • F-test is any stats test that uses F-distribution

  • It is often used when comparing stats models that have been fitted to a data set.. Ahh.. That
    sounds no different from F-score then.. May be just different
    fields(Statistics and Machine Learning) have different naming conventions?? Anyway two different
    F-words.. So let’s just say what F-score/test?? Why two names for samething and move on…

Examples:

  • Null Hypothesis: Means of a given set of normally distributed populations all having same standard deviation being equal.(used in ANOVA)

  • The hypothesis that a proposed regression model fits the data well.

  • The hypothesis that a data set in a regression analysis follows the simpler of two proposed linear models that are nested within each other.

  • It(non-regression type) is also a test of homoskedasticity

Drawbacks:

Formula

  • Formula: explained variance/un-explained variance or between-group-variability/within-group-variability Ok. That doesn’t sound like the F-score

  • Formula(for regression models): ((RSS\_1 - RSS\_2) / (p_2 - p_1)/(RSS_2/(n-p_2)))

Visualization Grammar — VEGA

VEGA:

A visualization grammar, a language for:
* — creating, saving and sharing interactive visualization designs
* — describe visual appearance and interactive behaviour of visualization in json
* — reactive signals that dynamically modify a visualization in response to input
event streams

Key Semantics:

The key semantics are:
* — width, height, padding, autosize (all are for specifying the size of the
visualization)
* — data (an array of data definitions, can define type, name, stream, url, and values of the
data type)

  • — scales (Configurations for as to map columns of data to pixel positions or
    colors, or type of representation(for ex: categorical==> bands etc)).

  • — axes (Configuration of axes)

  • — marks (Graphical primitives, which are used to encode data. Has properties
    position, size, shape, color. Examples are: dot, circle, rectangle(bar-chart),
    star etc..)

  • — Have sub properties encode which marks the graphical primitives
  • — Encode’s Sub property enter and exit configure interactive parts when
    the mark is added or removed.
  • — marks sub property hover, update configure overall interactive parts
  • — each of the hover, update properties can be triggered/linked to signals
    and changed accordingly
  • — A special type of mark called group is present and can contain other
    marks(for composition of graphical primitives to create complex ones)

  • — signals (act as dynamic variables, or as event-listeners to use js parlance)

  • — Has sub property event streams
  • — Can set dynamically evaluated variables as values on events as
    defined.
  • — Events can be mouse over, mouse out, click,drag etc..
  • — Event streams
  • — Has sub properties source, type, marktype, between, consume, filetr etc.
  • — Each sub property decides which mark to change/update, based on which
    event type/user-action/data-change
  • — Event streams also have CSS-style selectors

  • — Legends

  • — Can create legends for the visualizatinos
  • — customize them with sub properties type, orient, fill, opacity, shape

  • — Transforms

  • — As the name implies it can transform data streams
  • — Has sub properties ilke filter, stack, aggregate, bin, collect, fold,
    impute etc

Share: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

There was a legendary episode in social psychology called the Robbers Cave experiment. It had been set up in the bewildered aftermath of World War II, with the intent of investigating the causes and remedies of conflicts between groups. The scientists had set up a summer camp for 22 boys from 22 different schools, selecting them to all be from stable middle-class families. The first phase of the experiment had been intended to investigate what it took to start a conflict between groups. The 22 boys had been divided into two groups of 11 –
– and this had been quite sufficient.
The hostility had started from the moment the two groups had become aware of each others’ existences in the state park, insults being hurled on the first meeting. They’d named themselves the Eagles and the Rattlers (they hadn’t needed names for themselves when they thought they were the only ones in the park) and had proceeded to develop contrasting group stereotypes, the Rattlers thinking of themselves as rough-and-tough and swearing heavily, the Eagles correspondingly deciding to think of themselves as upright-and-proper.
The other part of the experiment had been testing how to resolve group conflicts. Bringing the boys together to watch fireworks hadn’t worked at all. They’d just shouted at each other and stayed apart. What had worked was warning them that there might be vandals in the park, and the two groups needing to work together to solve a failure of the park’s water system. A common task, a common enemy.
Harry had a strong suspicion Professor Quirrell had understood this principle very well indeed when he had chosen to create three armies per year.

Kallada travels… Unbelievable bad service.

I am traveling by kallada travels today to my hometown. It’s a nonA/C sleeper. And it is expected to leave Madiwala by 8.45 pm. It left around 9.00 pm…Hmm play 15 minutes delay is understood with Bangalore traffic.
However we’ve been waiting at Chandapura for an hour for two more passengers…It is currently 23:16 hrs and they are now moving after picking up those 2 passengers..

This is just fucking lousy, careless, arrogant service. All questions to the guys (apparently in-charge) are deflected with a boss or manager says so…

Never taking these travels again..And redBus might as well block these travels.

My stock market –dabblings.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve been dabbling, and really just buying on impulse and random
reading online stock tips and forums. At the year-end while filing taxes and tallying up I realized(not
surprisingly, I might add) I’ve lost money(Thanks to the bull market, only little).
Which is when I realized, I’ve been half-assing the amount of research, I should do before investing
in stock market, and what’s worse, I’ve been falling prey to the fallacy ” a little knowledge is a
dangerous thing”.
So this is an attempt to hide the crime and in the process, build a system to avoid committing the
crime in the future.

Before I begin, some of the sources, I’ve been half-assing for research,(but good sources
nevertheless) are:

This is a first of a series of posts:

Most of the data, I used(and will use for the series) in the following analysis was picked up from investr(thanks to r/hapuchu,
for sharing the data), but can be picked up by crawling the webpages of companise for quarterly
and/or annual reports, and then parsing the pdf to consume them.

 

Some Caveats and Exceptions:

  • –I’m writing this around the end/last week of february.
  • — These are all stocks I traded in starting in 2nd half of 2015.
  • — I’ve done some stock investment during the 2006-2009, made some money, but due to
    bad(nah had no clue about it)
    portfolio/cashflow management, had to sell a bunch of them in 2009, which put overall
    returns negative and stopped trading, leaving whatever was left. But learnt the lesson, not to put any amount of money I’m not ok with losing into stocks.

  • — I’m working in the IT industry, and have spent some spare-time reading Finance, but
    nowhere near dedicated or focussed. (Not sure that kinda reading is good.)

  • — Most of the energy stocks are from when I decided I’ll go thematic on renewable energy
    and bought them, but lost patience/nerve when the stocks went down and eventually sold off

Direct-Equity[^1] Portfolio Opinions:

  • Way too many stocks
  • Way too disorganized and unfocused and under researched
  • Not enough Focus on long-term(think companies that’ll stay for > 100 years)
  • Balance long-term (black-swan)focus with dividend-based focus(For ex this)

Ok here’s a list of the stocks I’ve traded:

Reasoning:

  • I’ve seen the share price of this it has been hovering around 1000 for the
    10 years I’ve seen this stock, so this can be part of a stable portfolio.

Flaws:

  • This is absurd, as for all I know, the stock could have split 10 times in
    those 10 years, which means the stock has risen or merged, which means it
    has fallen. I haven’t checked it but the point is that it is a fallacy.

Outcome:

  • It has fallen a little bit, but I’m still keeping it and might even buy
    more.

  • Geometric Ltd.

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • Not much, just that I’ve like Infy stocks in the past, and they seemed to
    be
    on a downtick

Flaws:

  • Well it’s just an impulse buy, and not better than gambling.

Outcome:

  • It has recovered and got back to trading better, but that’s just luck.

 

Reasoning:

  • Can’t even remember, where but it was some analyst rating and read

Flaws:

  • Belief in expert fallacy.

Outcome:

  • Loss. Panicked and sold at 200. It seems to be doing a little better, but
    even now it would be a loss for me to sell, however the system of
    investment was wrong.

  • HDFC Bank

Outcome:

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • Can’t even remember, where but it was blog/reddit thread

Flaws:

  • Belief in expert fallacy.
  • Belief in crowd decision fallacy??

Outcome:

  • Up by about 20% lucky bull ride

Reasoning:

  • Analyst recommendation

Flaws:

  • belief-in-Expert-bias

Outcome:

  • Down by about 1/7th (Caveat: Down only because they had a rights issue
    that I missed)

  • Manappuram Finance

Outcome:
* Up by about 1/8th

Outcome:

Outcome:

  • Gained a bit.(can’t be bothered to track sale date and say how much)

  • Orient Green Power

Outcome:
* Lost a bit.

Outcome:
* Lost money

Outcome:
* Gain a little bit

Reasoning:

  • I’ve had good experience buying it during the IPO and making money(
  • I’ve a bias for the non-renewable sector ‘s future prospects.

Fallacy:

  • Using inductive reasoning when there’s no reason(IPO is different from regular trading)
  • Prior Bias (Ideally should have built a prediction, and accounted for non-renewable energy’s future bias I have)

Outcome:
* Lost a fair amount of money

Outcome:

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • Building a dividend portfolio  and saw good ratings about it on investr’s magic formula
  • Bought a scooter and decided, I could buy some auto stocks

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • I was in a automobile theme, and maruti has a big brand in India
  • Also was thinking of future plans for a car, and maruti was an automatic pick

Flaws:

  • It has a relatively higher P/E

Outcome:

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • Was in a automobile theme,
  • Bought a TVS Scooter

Outcome:

Reasoning:

  • I wanted to pick up some in airlines(theme idea) and found that indigo has
    a high P/E so picked up spice jet(based on investr score)

  • Dabur India

Outcome:

Outcome:

Outcome:

Outcome:

Outcome:

Outcome:

Outcome:

  • Slightly up

Moral/TODO:

  • Shorten the number of stocks and focus the money into a few
  • Build a internal system for analyzing companies before invest in the future

[^1] — I might eventually broaden the scope of blog posts, but don’t expect it for a looong, loong time(count in decades)…

igot– > not exactly fraudster..(just quasi or almost)

TL; DR: The company igot is not exactly a fraudster, but any money/BTC you transact through them, is not expected to be paid out in anything close to reasonable time period.(aka mine’s pending since July 2016, for other examples see here.).

The company igot is a bitcoin exchange for people wanting to buy, sell, trade in bitcoin(BTC) with whatever currency they would like to.trade in.

 

Back in 2015, I had bought some bitcoins and was trading in them for a while selling when it rose, and buying back when it fell..  Eventually I had around 1.1 BTC, half of which I decided to cash-in sometime around July 2016, and sold and initiated a transaction with igot to debit the money to my account.

 

After a week of no debit transaction on my bank account I raised a support ticket hoping to get some resolution, but that was not responded to for a month, and only got a response once I threatened to go to the banking ombudsman in india(an authority for mediating complaints against banks.) . transactions_feb_24_2017 supportrequest2 supportrequest1 of the same.

Now this support request (and a email) response promises to start processing pending transaction from September 2016 and End by November 2016.

And in october I raised the ticket again and supportrequest2of vague, promise that never materialized.

 

At this point, I give up and wait for november to roll in and when it does, I try to contact them, but the support ticket/menu option had vanished. So I go back to the mail thread and mail them back with the following result. email_nov_3

And this just promises more in a few days time beginning the transaction processing. Note how the previous promise said the transactions would have been done by this time(Nov. 1- 2016).

Also note how the tone of the email has changed from (apologetic-sorry-promise to we-don’t-care-if-you-want-to-go-legal).

This is when I started realizing, that may be I’ve been dealing with dishonest, don’t-care-about-clients type of businessmen/management.

I do not know what is the right future action to take but I’m stuck for now with this blog post. Atleast for any one else, googling to evaluate the company, don’t do it. They are not reliable enough people to route your money through.

 

UPDATE: Ok I give up. They’re just frauding people and failing to communicate to old customers all together. Most likely because have no intentions of paying back the old customers. Seems like now they have a new website and page. For a long time, they’ve been talking about a resolution centre for old customers, but now they launch a complete new website. 

I just have no idea how to take them to task. Anyone with cyber crime division in India contact me please.

Statistical moments —

Inspired by this blog from paypal team. Moment is a physics concept(or atleast I encountered it first in physics, but it looks it has been generalized in math to apply to other fields).

If you followed that wikipedia math link above, you’ll know the formula for moment is
\mu_n = \int\limits_{-\infty}^{+\infty} (x-c)^n f(x)\ dx\
where x — the value of the variable
n — order of the moment (aka nth moment, we’ll get to that shortly)
c — center or value around which to calculate the moment.

However if you look at a few other pages and links they ignore that part c.. and of course use the summation symbol.**

The reason they don’t put up ‘c’ there is they assume moment around the value 0. As we’ll see below this is well and good in some cases, but not always.

The other part n- order of the moment is an interesting concept. It’s just raising the value to nth power. To begin with if n is even the the negative sign caused by differences goes away. So it’s all a summary and becomes a monotonically increasing function.

I usually would argue that the ‘c’ would be the measure of central tendency like mean/median/mode and a sign of fat-tailed/thin-tailed distributions is that the moments will be different if you choose a different c and the different moments change wildly.

The statsblog I linked above mentions something different.

Higher-order terms(above the 4th) are difficult to estimate and equally difficult to describe in layman’s terms. You’re unlikely to come across any of them in elementary stats. For example, the 5th order is a measure of the relative importance of tails versus center (mode, shoulders) in causing skew. For example, a high 5th means there is a heavy tail with little mode movement and a low 5th means there is more change in the shoulders.

Hmm.. wonder how or why? I can’t figure out how it can be an indication of fat-tails(referred by the phrase importance of tails in the quote above) with the formula they are using. i.e: when the formula doesn’t mention anything about ‘c’.

** — That would be the notation for comparing discrete variables as opposed to continuous variables, but given that most of real-world application of statistics uses sampling at discrete intervals, it’s understandable to use this notation instead of the integral sign.